Deep-dive analysis, trade setups, and macro commentary — published every week.
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All articles are educational commentary only. Nothing published here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer →
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Apr 8, 2026 · Macro · 7 min
Hormuz Zero: What Happens When the World's Most Important Waterway Goes Dark
WTI and Brent both collapsed over 13% as tanker traffic through Hormuz hit zero. Trump announced a ceasefire conditional on reopening the strait. We break down what the forward curve, the CL1 chart, and prediction markets are actually telling traders.
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Apr 8, 2026 · Macro · 8 min
The Bond Market Paradox: Why the 10Y Won't Fall Even as Recession Risk Rises
CPI is at 2.4%. Oil just crashed. Three Fed cuts are priced in. The 10Y should be falling — but it isn't. We break down the term premium, the tariff inflation trap, and what the bond market is really telling us.
Latest
Apr 8, 2026 · Macro · 7 min
Hormuz Zero: What Happens When the World's Most Important Waterway Goes Dark
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit zero this week. Brent crashed 13%. A ceasefire is on the table. Here's what the data is actually telling us.
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This article is educational commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclaimer →