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Weekly Articles

Deep-dive analysis, trade setups, and macro commentary — published every week.

All articles are educational commentary only. Nothing published here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Full disclaimer →

ZERO STRAIT OF HORMUZ TANKERS IN TRANSIT 0 BRENT CRUDE -13.78%
Hormuz Zero: What Happens When the World's Most Important Waterway Goes Dark
WTI and Brent both collapsed over 13% as tanker traffic through Hormuz hit zero. Trump announced a ceasefire conditional on reopening the strait. We break down what the forward curve, the CL1 chart, and prediction markets are actually telling traders.
4.28% 10Y TREASURY 4.2872% CPI YOY 2.4% CUTS PRICED IN ~3 BY 2027 YIELD NOT FALLING 2021 2022 2024 2026 10Y YIELD CPI
The Bond Market Paradox: Why the 10Y Won't Fall Even as Recession Risk Rises
CPI is at 2.4%. Oil just crashed. Three Fed cuts are priced in. The 10Y should be falling — but it isn't. We break down the term premium, the tariff inflation trap, and what the bond market is really telling us.
Hormuz Zero: What Happens When the World's Most Important Waterway Goes Dark
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit zero this week. Brent crashed 13%. A ceasefire is on the table. Here's what the data is actually telling us.

This article is educational commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclaimer →