The market has a mood. We measure it.

Indicators: Fresh ATH $777.88 (Aug 13), then a controlled 2-week fade. Price arc: $773.03 (Aug 10) → $777.88 (Aug 13 ATH) → $772.67 (Aug 17) → $762.60 (Aug 20 low close) → $765.72 today. Net −$7.31 from the ATH close in six sessions (−0.9%), on almost no volume expansion. EMAs still uptrending but compressing: EMA9 $767.79, EMA21 $763.32, spread narrowed from $8.20 (Aug 10) to $4.47 as price consolidated below EMA9. Aug 20 close $762.60 was the first close below EMA9 since Jul 31. FastOsc peaked at 1.17 (Aug 13) and rolled to 0.77. SlowOsc peaked at 0.95 (Aug 17) and eased to 0.86 — mild fade, not a break. HY OAS quiet at 2.68-2.72 range through the pullback.

Sentiment: The scoring model has reverted to the original P5 Sentiment (from last week's P5-CSR experiment). Historical scores across the dataset are back to the prior methodology — more volatile than P5-CSR. Score peaked at 73.81 (Aug 17) — mid-greed, and just 1.19 points shy of the >75 blowoff trim trigger. Fade since has been sharp: 73.81 → 67.68 → 61.95 → 57.01 → 54.70 today, a 19-point four-session decline. Classic post-peak sentiment cooling. Notably, the model printed a BUY signal on Aug 10 at close $773.03 (score 69.36) — recent print at cycle-high price, reinforcing the recent bullish stance. Today's score of 54.70 is right at the "<55 with EMA9 tag" add threshold.

What to watch: The blowoff trim almost fired — Aug 17's 73.81 was the closest the score has come to 75 all year, and price at $772.67 was near the ATH. That the trim didn't trigger and price then rolled anyway is the "sentiment fade before price break" pattern we've now seen twice this cycle. Below current, EMA9 ($767.79) has been broken; EMA21 ($763.32) is the next support and today's low $761.31 didn't reach it. If the pullback deepens, the "pullback to $755 with score <50" trigger arms next (10 points below current with a score already close). Above, reclaim of EMA9 with score building back above 60 flips the picture back to bullish continuation. Stance: the Aug 10 Buy signal has been our anchor — hold that position. The EMA9-tag add trigger is essentially firing here (score 54.70, price at EMA9); the deeper 1.25× tier at $755 stays reserved for a proper flush.

Action framework — when to add:

• [EXECUTED Jun 5] Pullback to $750 with score <65: Trimmed position re-added to core at $737.55 close, score 70.59.
• [EXECUTED Jun 8] Tag of EMA 9 (~$744): Normal add fired at $739.22 close.
• [EXECUTED Jun 11] EMA 21 / $733 area: 1.25× add fired at $737.76 close, intraday low $724.41. Score 24.91.
• [EXECUTED Jun 26] Break below $725 with score <30: Re-armed trigger fired — close $728.99 with intraday $716.58, score 20.61. Cycle-low sentiment print on the day.
• [SOFT TAG Jun 26] Flush to $715 (1.5× tier): Intraday low $716.58 briefly kissed the zone but no daily close below $720 — executable opportunistically at the tag, no clean close-below signal for the disciplined trigger.
• [FIRED Jul 31] BSB Buy signal (from model): The framework's discretionary Buy print fired on Jul 31 at close $747.03 — one session before the $756 breakout confirmed. The full $100K DCA deployed. (Old rule referenced Score <15 arming under the prior P5 Sentiment model — that trigger is now generated by the P5-CSR model's own Buy output.)
• [FIRED Aug 3] Break above $756 with score <55: Aug 3 close $757.67 cleared the ceiling on the 5th test. Framework's pre-armed trigger fired cleanly.
• [FIRED Aug 10] Model BUY signal at $773.03: The P5 Sentiment framework's Buy print at score 69.36 — full DCA deployed at the cycle-high region. In hindsight the timing coincided with the local peak the following week ($777.88 Aug 13), so this is a rare instance of a Buy signal firing right into the near-term top.
• Live — Pullback to EMA9 ($768) with score <55: Score 54.70 today (below threshold) with price $765.72 already below EMA9 — trigger essentially firing this week. Normal-sized add appropriate here on any tag of $763-767 zone.
• Reserve — Pullback to $755 area (former ceiling, now first support) with score <50: 1.25× add if the breakout structure holds on deeper retest. 10 points below current.
• Reserve — Break below EMA21 ($763) with score <40: Breakout failure scenario; return to range chop. Suspend further adds pending structural re-confirmation.

Action framework — when to trim or hedge:

• [EXECUTED May 27, validated by Jun 5-11 drawdown] Daily close above $750 + score >65: First-tier trim fired at $750.46, score 68.01 — and the framework's positioning fully worked through the round trip.
• [Not triggered, came close] Score > 80 print: Peak was 79.19 on Jun 2 — missed by 0.81.
• [Superseded by Aug 3 breakout] Re-armed trim >$760 + score >65: The $760 line was cleared before the trim score condition armed. Trigger fired conceptually — but the tape moved too fast to fill on a marginal print. Reset to next trim tier.
• Came within 1.19 pts — Score >75 print with price at fresh ATH: Aug 17 peak was 73.81 with price at $772.67 (post-ATH). The blowoff never fully materialized; score has since faded to 54.70. Trigger stays live but re-arming now requires a fresh climb back into greed and a new ATH push.
• Sustained above $785 with score >75 (Bull 6M+): Trim 25–50% of B&H or sell 30-DTE covered calls at $795 strike on 50% of position. Out of reach for now.
• Daily close below EMA 21 ($743) on rising volume: Suspend opportunistic adds above the prescribed dip tiers; core B&H not exited during fear-driven flushes.

Covered-call note: when the BSB score is elevated, implied volatility is elevated too — the same crowd buying the rally is buying the upside calls you sell. You collect premium while waiting, get called away at your trim target if SPY rips through, and avoid realizing gains if it doesn't. Requires options approval at your broker.

Key risks to monitor: Fresh ATH $777.88 (Aug 13); price now $12.16 off the high after 6-session fade · EMA9/EMA21 spread compressing again (from $8.20 to $4.47) — pullback tape but not yet trend break · Score model reverted from P5-CSR back to original P5 Sentiment this week — historical calibration is once again the pre-Aug scale · Aug 17 score peak of 73.81 was the closest to the >75 blowoff trim all cycle; the fact it didn't quite trigger before rolling is the "sentiment fade before price break" signature — second time this cycle · Aug–Oct midterm-year seasonality now active — the pullback aligns with the seasonally weakest window · EMA21 at $763.32 is the near-term line in the sand; a close below with score under 40 opens a broader unwind toward the $755 breakout retest.