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Indicators: The $750 line broke — and broke clean. Tuesday closed at $750.59 (intraday ATH $752.13), Wednesday confirmed at $750.46. Two daily closes through the level that rejected twice in May (high $749.53 May 14, $748.94 May 22). No double-top — just a third-time-through breakout. FastOsc continued its rebuild to 1.30–1.31 from last week's 1.13 reset, with plenty of room before the 1.61 cycle high. The SlowOsc divergence persists, though: 1.0410 → 1.0577 over two sessions, basically flat. Short cycle re-energizing while the medium wave refuses to follow — three weeks of this divergence now. EMA9 climbed to $743.61, EMA21 to $733.17; spread re-widening to ~10.4 points.
Sentiment: Score blew straight through the 65 trigger — 61.97 (Fri) → 66.64 (Tue) → 68.01 (Wed). Six-point jump in two sessions, highest reading of the entire cycle. Crucially, this came with the breakout, not before it — exactly the "sentiment chase" pattern we flagged as the trim-trigger scenario last Friday. Both Game Plan trim conditions are now met: daily close above $750 + score >65. The signal fired Tuesday and re-fired Wednesday.
What to watch: The trim trigger has executed. Per the framework: trim 25% of opportunistic adds or sell 30-DTE covered calls at the $755 strike on 25% of position. The core B&H stays. The next trim escalator is much further out — sustained price above $785 with score >75 (extreme greed). Below current, the path of natural support is $750 (former resistance, now first floor), $748 (recent pivots), then EMA9 $744 and EMA21 $733. Pullback to $750 with score easing back below 65 is the cleanest re-add of any trimmed position. Stance: trim executed, B&H intact, wait for the next setup. The single biggest risk now is the SlowOsc divergence — three weeks of FastOsc making higher local peaks while SlowOsc fades is the medium-cycle top signature.
Forward scenarios anchored on current price, BSB sentiment cycle position, oscillator extremes, and historical SPY volatility ranges. These are scenarios, not predictions. Bull/Bear extremes represent ~1σ moves; base case is the median path given current setup.
Action framework — when to add:
Action framework — when to trim or hedge:
Covered-call note: when the BSB score is elevated, implied volatility is elevated too — the same crowd buying the rally is buying the upside calls you sell. You collect premium while waiting, get called away at your trim target if SPY rips through, and avoid realizing gains if it doesn't. Requires options approval at your broker.
Key risks to monitor: SlowOsc divergence continues — FastOsc has put in three higher local peaks (1.34 → 1.61 → 1.31+) while SlowOsc has faded from 1.21 to 1.06; the medium-cycle wave has not confirmed any new high since May 14 · Score at 68.01 is cycle-high greed, but still below the 75+ "outright trim B&H" threshold · HY credit spread 2.78 pinned at cycle low (no cushion if credit cracks) · Two-day breakout above $750 needs a third close to be structurally resolved — a Friday close back inside the range would invalidate the bull setup · Midterm-year seasonality typically weakest Aug–Oct.
$100K initial buy on day one of the dataset, held indefinitely. Then $100K added on every Buy-the-Fear signal — fired when the BSB score has printed below 15 (extreme fear) and both EMA 9 and EMA 21 are sloping upward. All positions held; no exits.
The BSB Sentiment Index is an educational tool only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risk of loss. Full disclaimer →
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What we can tell you: the BSB Sentiment Index is built on a proprietary quantitative model developed over years of market observation. The daily charts and weekly research are the product of that same framework, applied consistently, without agenda.